The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.


7月の連邦公開市場委員会(FOMC)以降に入手した情報は、労働市場が引き締まり続け、経済活動が今年ここまで緩やかに拡大している(has been rising moderately so far this year)ことを示している。


委員会は法律上与えられた責務に従って、雇用最大化と物価安定の促進を目指す。ハリケーン「ハービー」「イルマ」「マリア」が多くの地域に打撃を与え、厳しい苦難を与えている。嵐による被害と被災地復興は短期的に経済活動に影響を及ぼすが、過去の経験では、嵐が中期的に国内経済の方向を著しく変える可能性は低いとみられる。そのため、委員会は金融政策の運営姿勢の緩やかな調整により、経済活動が緩やかなペースで拡大し、労働市場の状況はさらにいくらか力強さを増すと引き続き予測している。ハリケーンの影響によるガソリンやその他の製品の価格の上昇は一時的に物価を押し上げるだろう。その効果は別として、前年同月比で見たインフレ率は短期的には引き続き2%をやや下回る(Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term)が、中期的には委員会の目標である2%近辺で安定する(to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term)と予測している。短期的な経済見通しへのリスクはおおむね均衡しているとみられる(appear roughly balanced)が、委員会は物価の動向を注意深く監視(monitoring inflation developments closely)する。

労働市場の状況とインフレ率の実績と見通しを考慮して、委員会はフェデラルファンド(FF)金利の目標誘導レンジを1.00─1.25%に維持することを決定した。金融政策の運営姿勢は引き続き緩和的で、それによって労働市場の状況のさらにいくらかの引き締まりと、2%のインフレへの持続的な回帰(sustained return)を支える。

FF金利の目標誘導レンジの将来的な調整の時期と規模を決めるに当たり、委員会は目標にしている最大雇用と2%のインフレとの比較で経済状況の実績と見通しを評価する。この評価は、労働市場の状況に関する指標、インフレ圧力やインフレ期待の指標、金融動向や国際情勢の解釈を含む幅広い情報を考慮する。委員会は対称的なインフレ目標(symmetric inflation goal)との比較で、インフレ率の実際の進捗と予想される進展を注視する。委員会は、経済状況はFF金利の緩やかな引き上げを正当化する形で進むと予測する。FF金利は当面、長期的に到達すると見込まれる水準を下回るレベルで推移する可能性がある。ただ、FF金利の実際の道筋は、今後入手するデータがもたらす経済見通し次第である。